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Sports Betting Aribrage Resources

Download the spreadsheet here, which has default values plugged-in per the example in the video.

Per the screenshot below, replace the 1000 value in the formula bar for each value in cells F2, F3, and F4, to whatever amount you have available to bet place your bets with. This is the total amount, with spreadsheet programmed to work out how much to stake on each outcome. I've also made a web version for you, into which you can just plug in the values of up to six(6) outcomes, e.g. for a men's Grand Slam tennis match on which you compare match-score odds for possible arbing. Access it here.

Happy arbing!!

Sports betting arbitrage (also called sure betting, arbing, or risk-free betting) is a strategy where a bettor places bets on all possible outcomes of a sporting event using different bookmakers to guarantee a profit, no matter the result.

This happens because different bookies sometimes offer different odds due to varying opinions, delays in odds updates, or promotions. If the odds are favorable enough, you can split your stake across the options and lock in a profit.

How It Works – Step-by-Step (With a Football Example)

Let’s say there’s a football match:

Manchester United vs. Liverpool
Possible outcomes in a 1X2 market:

• 1: Manchester United wins

• X: Draw

• 2: Liverpool wins

Example Odds (From 2 Bookmakers)

To find arbitrage, we pick the best odds from both platforms:

• Man United win @ 2.60 (Betway)

• Draw @ 3.60 (Easybet)

• Liverpool win @ 2.90 (Easybet)

Check if Arbitrage Exists

To test for an arbitrage opportunity, we use this formula:

(1 / best_odds_team1) + (1 / best_odds_draw) + (1 / best_odds_team2) < 1

Plugging in:

(1 / 2.60) + (1 / 3.60) + (1 / 2.90)
≈ 0.3846 + 0.2778 + 0.3448
= 1.0072 — Not an arbitrage (slightly over 1)

If the total were less than 1.00, you'd have an arbitrage.

Let’s Adjust Odds Slightly (to Show a Real Arbitrage)

Now:

(1 / 2.80) + (1 / 3.70) + (1 / 3.00)
≈ 0.3571 + 0.2703 + 0.3333
= 0.9607 — Arbitrage exists

How Much to Bet?

Suppose you want to invest R1,000 total. Use this formula to calculate each stake:

Stake on outcome = (Total Investment × (1 / outcome_odds)) / Total implied probability

Let’s calculate total implied probability:

Total = 0.9607

Now calculate each stake:

• Man United @ 2.80:
  R1,000 × (1 / 2.80) / 0.9607 ≈ R371.14

• Draw @ 3.70:
  R1,000 × (1 / 3.70) / 0.9607 ≈ R282.06

• Liverpool @ 3.00:
  R1,000 × (1 / 3.00) / 0.9607 ≈ R346.80

Total bet: R1,000
No matter who wins, return is:

• Man United: R371.14 × 2.80 = R1,039.19

• Draw: R282.06 × 3.70 = R1,043.62

• Liverpool: R346.80 × 3.00 = R1,040.40

So your guaranteed profit is about R40+, or 4%.